A question we introspect on significantly is whether the next stage of value migration in Banking will be from Private Banks to Digital players.
Our working hypothesis at present: well-run Banks will grow aggregate profits; however, their valuations will drift downwards as ROEs will decline.
Read MoreSharpe ratio seeks to determine risk-adjusted returns, or “returns per unit of risk”. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the fund’s historical risk-adjusted-performance.
Solidarity’s Sharpe ratio since inception is ~2x that of the NIFTY. This implies for the same level of risk, we have delivered twice the return.
Read MoreThe most frequent question we get from partners is what do you think will happen to the market.
Bitter truth: it is the wrong question to ask because no one knows.
Why is this so? Because markets move due to multiple variables, not all of which are visible or predictable.
Read MoreWhat risk in the market do you worry about the most at present?
Markets seem to be ignoring the risk of significantly higher inflation down the road and abrupt change in monetary policy. At present, the markets are complacent that the US Fed will not raise interest rates in the short term and are justified in this because the US Fed, the most important Central Bank in the world, is still buying USD 120 B of Bonds monthly which keeps long term interest rates low. However, company after company is reporting higher inflation in the US even as economic growth in the US is surging.
Read MoreCommentators are wondering why the Indian stock market is “shockingly resilient” amidst the devastation caused by the Covid second wave. Their premise is that Covid’s second wave is causing significant devastation and death. 2021 GDP growth has been downgraded. Rising raw material prices will erode margins. The virus has spread across the country and will cause massive unemployment. Analysts have started downgrading estimates. Stock price valuations are 2X of China. So why has the market fallen only 5% since February?
Read MoreIn our last blog we explained we don’t intend taking cash calls just because markets may seem overvalued.
In this note we provide more rationale for the same. Even if one was to get market timing – selling and re-entry – both legs perfectly right, and that is a big assumption, the net impact on your incremental IRR vs staying invested is marginal.
Read More4 common questions we have recently been getting
1. Is this still a good time to enter markets?
2. Will you invest all additional capital at present?
3. Will you take some cash calls because markets have run up so quickly?
4. Will you rejig the portfolio as cyclicals may do better short term?
Read MoreOver the last few years, traditionally defined “Value” stocks have continued to get cheaper while “Growth” oriented cos have done very well. The divergence is stark and is now prompting questions whether Value Investing is dead.
The categorization of stocks between “Growth” and “Value” is erroneous. Anything that is low PE multiple and out of favour with markets is typically labelled “Value” and anything with high multiples and fast growth is labelled “Growth”.
Read MoreSEBI came out with new guidelines last evening where Equity Multi-Cap Funds now compulsorily need to invest at least 25% of their corpus in “Mid Caps” (firms ranked between 101-250 in pecking order of Market Cap) and another 25% in “Small Caps (firms ranked 251 or higher in pecking order of Market Cap). This needs to be achieved by 31 Jan 2021.
In this note we want to address the following issues
a) How did SEBI get here?
b) Our view on this order
c) What this order means for Small and Mid-Caps in the short term?
Read MoreWe are in the midst of an economic shock. India has not been able to flatten the curve and the number of infections continues to rise. There is no visibility of a vaccine or a cure. SMEs are in distress. Neighbourhood shops are doing very little business, if any at all. Yet stock prices seem to ignore market conditions and have reached the levels of February 2020.
What is going on? Are markets ahead of themselves? Should Solidarity be taking a cash call at present to preserve some of the gains?
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