“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”-Vladimir Lenin
This is a new Trumpian world. Within 8 weeks of being sworn in, Trump has voted alongside Russia at the UN against historical allies, threatened to annex Greenland, to cut defence aid to Ukraine, to exit NATO, pulled the US out of the Paris climate change agreement, defied the US judiciary ….
Read MoreEnclosed note discusses our views on the worsening China macro situation and high interest rates in the US.
Read MoreWe have put together a brief note to explain our perspective on impact to Indian markets if the BJP loses the 2024 election.
Read MoreWe have put together a brief note explaining implications of global repricing of risk.
Read MoreWe have put together a brief note explaining our views on whether India has decoupled.
Read MoreDear Partners:
In order that we can share our thinking on the current situation in Ukraine with all partners, we have put together a brief note that summarizes trends we see, their implications, and how we intend to act. I hope you find it useful.
A caveat. The situation is evolving and we typically see first order effects at present, but there will be second and third order effects which only become clearer with time. Hence, this note is “work in process”.
Will the lockdown in India end on 17 May or will we as a country go deeper into “economic hara-kiri” ? (Anand Mahindra)
The first lockdown was perhaps right. In the fog of war, you have to act decisively till you figure out a course of action. However, post mid-April, we seem to acting more out of fear, than with “systems thinking”.
Read MoreSmart money threatened a 10-15% single-day drop in the US Market if Trump was elected and a one day 100 USD/oz. upward movement in the price of Gold. Well, Trump is king, the US markets have rallied and Gold has declined.
Read MoreThis morning, while listening to the Brexit results, I chanced upon a conversation on a business channel. The same anchor who a few months ago said it was futile to forecast, was waxing eloquent about how Brexit could be worse than the Lehman crisis and how it could affect Indian equity markets for years.
Read MoreHeavyweights have contrary opinions on what the Fed should do – IMF and World Bank (against) vs the BIS (for); so clearly the decision is not an easy one.
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