Macro Environment

Interview with Mr Anurag Surana- a domain expert on Specialty Chemicals for his decadal views on the industry

Mr Manish Gupta was delighted to speak with a mentor of Solidarity, Mr Anurag Surana who is a deep domain expert in Specialty Chemicals. With over 35 years experience and a part of the core team that built PI Industries. He is also the Chairman of 2 Specialty Chemical companies in India.

The conversation with him covered many topics

How Indian Specialty Chemicals companies have evolved over the last 20 years and expected trajectory
Why most Indian companies should not be severely impacted by US tariffs
Variables to look out for and questions to ask management teams when gauging whether companies are becoming better Assets
Mistakes made by long term investors when they obsess over metrics like ROCE without making adjustments for the long gestation investments management teams are making.

Watch the full interview here

Investment implications for Indian investors in a Trumpian world

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”-Vladimir Lenin

This is a new Trumpian world. Within 8 weeks of being sworn in, Trump has voted alongside Russia at the UN against historical allies, threatened to annex Greenland, to cut defence aid to Ukraine, to exit NATO, pulled the US out of the Paris climate change agreement, defied the US judiciary ….

Worsening macro situation in China and high interest rates in the US

Enclosed note discusses our views on the worsening China macro situation and high interest rates in the US.

Indian markets if the BJP loses the 2024 election

We have put together a brief note to explain our perspective on impact to Indian markets if the BJP loses the 2024 election.

Implications of global repricing of risk

We have put together a brief note explaining implications of global repricing of risk.

Has India decoupled

We have put together a brief note explaining our views on whether India has decoupled.

Consequences of Putin’s war in Ukraine

Dear Partners:

In order that we can share our thinking on the current situation in Ukraine with all partners, we have put together a brief note that summarizes trends we see, their implications, and how we intend to act. I hope you find it useful.

A caveat. The situation is evolving and we typically see first order effects at present, but there will be second and third order effects which only become clearer with time. Hence, this note is “work in process”.

Dear Prime Minister, give us a message of hope, courage and equanimity

Will the lockdown in India end on 17 May or will we as a country go deeper into “economic hara-kiri” ? (Anand Mahindra)

The first lockdown was perhaps right. In the fog of war, you have to act decisively till you figure out a course of action. However, post mid-April, we seem to acting more out of fear, than with “systems thinking”.

Trump, black money and implications for stock prices

Smart money threatened a 10-15% single-day drop in the US Market if Trump was elected and a one day 100 USD/oz. upward movement in the price of Gold. Well, Trump is king, the US markets have rallied and Gold has declined.

The British Referendum: is it time to load the elephant gun?

This morning, while listening to the Brexit results, I chanced upon a conversation on a business channel. The same anchor who a few months ago said it was futile to forecast, was waxing eloquent about how Brexit could be worse than the Lehman crisis and how it could affect Indian equity markets for years.